Immigration Enforcement, Sanctuary Cities, and Rising Hispanic Suicide Rates

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# Immigration Enforcement, Sanctuary Cities, and Rising Hispanic Suicide Rates

## Immigration Enforcement and Hispanic Suicide

.pull-left[
**Hussain Hadah**<sup>1,2</sup>

<div style="color: white; font-size: 18px; margin-top: 10px;">
November 15, 2025
</div>

<div style="font-size: 0.8em; margin-top: 10px;">
<sup>1</sup>The Murphy Institute
<sup>2</sup>Economics Department, Tulane University<br>
</div>
]

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<div style="position: absolute;left:20px;bottom:5px;color:black;font-size: 12px;">Hussain Hadah (Tulane/Murphy Institute) | Immigration Enforcement and Hispanic Suicide | APPAM, Seattle Nov 15, 2025</div>

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## .large[Immigration enforcement affects millions of individuals and families]

<br>

### Immigration enforcement has intensified in recent years

### .brand-medallion[**11-12 million**] undocumented immigrants live in mixed-status families .tiny[(Passel and Krogstad, 2025)]

### Enforcement creates ripple effects beyond targeted individuals

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name: examples-enforcement

## Examples of recent immigration enforcement

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name: immigration-mechanisms

## .large[Immigration enforcement may affect mental health through several mechanisms] 
<br><br>

.pull-left[
### More strict enforcement leads to:

#### * .brand-crawfest[Increased fear and anxiety]

#### * .brand-crawfest[Family separation]

#### * .brand-crawfest[Economic hardship]
]

--
.pull-right[

### Or it could lead to:

#### * .brand-crawfest[Community support that mitigates negative effects]

#### * .brand-crawfest[More community cohesion and solidarity in response to enforcement]
]

---
name: research-question

## .large[I use the recent developments in DiD literature to answer the following question] <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;display:inline-block;position:fixed;top:10;right:10;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">  <path d="M256 8C119.043 8 8 119.083 8 256c0 136.997 111.043 248 248 248s248-111.003 248-248C504 119.083 392.957 8 256 8zm0 448c-110.532 0-200-89.431-200-200 0-110.495 89.472-200 200-200 110.491 0 200 89.471 200 200 0 110.53-89.431 200-200 200zm107.244-255.2c0 67.052-72.421 68.084-72.421 92.863V300c0 6.627-5.373 12-12 12h-45.647c-6.627 0-12-5.373-12-12v-8.659c0-35.745 27.1-50.034 47.579-61.516 17.561-9.845 28.324-16.541 28.324-29.579 0-17.246-21.999-28.693-39.784-28.693-23.189 0-33.894 10.977-48.942 29.969-4.057 5.12-11.46 6.071-16.666 2.124l-27.824-21.098c-5.107-3.872-6.251-11.066-2.644-16.363C184.846 131.491 214.94 112 261.794 112c49.071 0 101.45 38.304 101.45 88.8zM298 368c0 23.159-18.841 42-42 42s-42-18.841-42-42 18.841-42 42-42 42 18.841 42 42z"></path></svg>

### What is the .brand-crawfest[**causal effect**] of immigration enforcement on suicide rates among .brand-blue[**Hispanic**] populations in the United States?

#### I use the .brand-crawfest[**staggered rollout**] of .brand-blue[**Secure Communities**] (2008-2013)---a deportation expansion program---to estimate .brand-crawfest[**triple difference-in-differences (DDD)**]

---
name: secure-communities-rollout

## The .brand-crawfest[**staggered rollout**] of .brand-blue[**Secure Communities**]

<img src="hadah-nov-15-2025_files/figure-html/plot-1-1.png" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
---
name: data-sources-one

## I use two main data sources for my analysis

<br>

<h3>Mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) .tiny[(National vital statistics system, 2007)]</h3>

<div style="margin-left: 20px;">
<h4>• Annual count of suicides by county, race, and age group</h4>
<h4>• Sample period: 1999-2013 to align with SC implementation</h4>
</div>

<h3>Secure Communities (SC) data .tiny[(Alsan and Yang, 2024)]</h3>

<div style="margin-left: 20px;">
<h4>• They use data from Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests</h4>
<h4>• Determined when counties opted into the program</h4>
</div>
</br>

---
name: triple-diff-spec-intro

## Triple Difference-in-Differences (DDD) event study specification

$$
`\begin{align*}
\color{red}{y_{crst}} = \color{green}{\mathbf{1}\{ t - E_c = l \}} \times \color{blue}{Hispanic_{r}} + \theta_{cr} + \lambda_{rt} + \gamma_{ct} + \varepsilon_{crst}
\end{align*}`
$$

### I use Borusyak, Jaravel, and Spiess (2024) to estimate a .brand-crawfest[**causal impact**] of .brand-blue[**SC**] on .brand-blue[**Hispanic**] suicide rates

- **Outcome**: `$\color{red}{y_{crst}}$` per 100,000 suicide rate by county `$c$`, race `$r$`, state `$s$`, and time `$t$`

- **Treatment interaction**: 
  - `$\color{green}{\mathbf{1}\{ t - E_c = l \}}$` is an indicator variable equal to 1 when time `$\textit{t}$` is `$\textit{l}$` years away from the adoption of waiting years in county `$\textit{c}$`
  - `$\color{blue}{\text{Hispanic indicator}}$` (1 for Hispanic, 0 for White)

- **Fixed-effects:** County-race (`$\theta_{cr}$`), race-year (`$\lambda_{rt}$`), county-year (`$\gamma_{ct}$`)

---
name: results-5to14-all

## I find significant .brand-olive[decreases] in suicide rates among .brand-medallion[**ages 5-14**] year old Hispanic children

---
name: results-15to24-all

## I find a small .brand-olive[decreases] in suicide rates among .brand-medallion[**ages 15-24**] year old Hispanic youth

---
name: results-34plus-all

## I find a large and .brand-crawfest[significant increase] in suicide rates among .brand-medallion[**ages 34+**] Hispanics

---
name: results-34plus-gender

## Gender differences in .brand-medallion[**ages 34+**] Hispanic suicide rates

---
name: sanctuary-hetero-5to14

## .brand-blue[**Sanctuary cities**] heterogeneity

---
name: mechanisms

## Mechanisms + Moderators

<br>
- Economic conditions dominate: .brand-shutters[low-unemployment] counties see protective declines post-SC, while .brand-crawfest[high-unemployment] areas experience persistent increases in Hispanic suicides. .tiny[[[Unemployment results](#unemployment-hetero-appendix)]; [[LAUS results](#unemployment-all-hetero-appendix)]]
  
<br>

- Local political climate matters: .brand-shutters[Democratic-leaning] counties, especially adult males 34+, absorb the largest post-SC spikes. .tiny[[[Political leanings results](#political-hetero-appendix)]]

<br>

- Anti-Hispanic bias and population density show **limited**, inconsistent moderation, and countywide mentally unhealthy days miss the Hispanic-specific burden. .tiny[[[Density results](#bias-hetero-appendix)]]

---
name: conclusion-slide

## .brand-blue[**Secure Communities**] has heterogeneous effects on Hispanic suicide rates across age groups

- **.brand-mardigras[Hispanic children (5-14)]**: .brand-mardigras[**35-100% decrease**] vs. **.brand-crawfest[Hispanic adults (34+)]**: .brand-crawfest[**18-60% increase**] in suicide rates relative to Whites

- **.brand-blue[Sanctuary cities]** provide protective effects among the younger age groups by limiting local cooperation with federal enforcement

- **.brand-olive[Low unemployment]** serves as a key mechanism moderating the effects of immigration enforcement on Hispanic suicide rates

- Effects vary significantly by **.blue[political affiliation]**: Democratic counties show larger increases in adult suicide rates
  
---
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# Thank you!

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<a href="mailto:hhadah@tulane.edu">
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# Appendix

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count: false
name: bias-hetero-appendix

## Heterogeneous effects by county-level anti-Hispanic bias

.tiny[.pull-right[.small[[[Back](#mechanisms)]]]]

---
count: false
name: political-hetero-appendix

## Heterogeneous effects by county-level political affiliation

.tiny[.pull-right[.small[[[Back](#mechanisms)]]]]

---
count: false
name: density-hetero-appendix

## Heterogeneous effects by county-level population density

.tiny[.pull-right[.small[[[Back](#mechanisms)]]]]

---
count: false
name: unemployment-hetero-appendix

## Heterogeneous effects by county-level unemployment rate

.tiny[.pull-right[.small[[[Back](#mechanisms)]]]]

<img src="hadah-nov-15-2025_files/figure-html/unemp-hetero-appendix-1.png" width="75%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
---
count: false
name: unemployment-all-hetero-appendix

## Heterogeneous effects by county-level unemployment rate (LAUS)