Urban Economics

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.title[
# Urban Economics
]
.subtitle[
## Flint Water Crisis and Neighborhood Based Interventions
]
.author[
### Hussain Hadah (he/him)
]
.date[
### 09 November 2025
]

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<div style="position: absolute;left:20px;bottom:5px;color:black;font-size: 12px;">Hussain Hadah (he/him) (Tulane) | Flint Water Crisis and Neighborhood Based Interventions | 09 November 2025</div>

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# .text-shadow[.white[Outline for Today]]

<ol>
    <li><h4 class="white">The Flint Water Crisis</h4></li>
    <li><h4 class="white">Neighborhood Based Interventions</h4></li>
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## This week <svg viewBox="0 0 448 512" style="height:1em;display:inline-block;position:fixed;top:10;right:10;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">  <path d="M0 464c0 26.5 21.5 48 48 48h352c26.5 0 48-21.5 48-48V192H0v272zm64-192c0-8.8 7.2-16 16-16h288c8.8 0 16 7.2 16 16v64c0 8.8-7.2 16-16 16H80c-8.8 0-16-7.2-16-16v-64zM400 64h-48V16c0-8.8-7.2-16-16-16h-32c-8.8 0-16 7.2-16 16v48H160V16c0-8.8-7.2-16-16-16h-32c-8.8 0-16 7.2-16 16v48H48C21.5 64 0 85.5 0 112v48h448v-48c0-26.5-21.5-48-48-48z"></path></svg>

- **Wednesday (11/12) and Friday (11/14)**: You can work on your third group briefing note
  - No specific reading assignments to students
  - No groups assigned
  - Pick your own groups
  - You you have to be in a group to receive credit 
  - .red[I will not be in class on both days]
  - .red[**First draft due Friday 11/14**]

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# The Flint Water Crisis <svg viewBox="0 0 352 512" style="height:1em;display:inline-block;position:fixed;top:10;right:10;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">  <path d="M205.22 22.09c-7.94-28.78-49.44-30.12-58.44 0C100.01 179.85 0 222.72 0 333.91 0 432.35 78.72 512 176 512s176-79.65 176-178.09c0-111.75-99.79-153.34-146.78-311.82zM176 448c-61.75 0-112-50.25-112-112 0-8.84 7.16-16 16-16s16 7.16 16 16c0 44.11 35.89 80 80 80 8.84 0 16 7.16 16 16s-7.16 16-16 16z"></path></svg>

---
## The Flint Water Crisis: An Urban Economics Perspective

### The Geography of Vulnerability

**Pre-crisis conditions shaped who was exposed:**
- Population declined from 200,000 to 100,000 (deindustrialization)
- Majority Black population (~60%)
- ~40% poverty rate
- 1 in 6 homes abandoned

**Key insight**: Where you lived determined your exposure
- Older neighborhoods = older lead pipes = higher contamination
- Low-income residents less able to relocate
- Geographic sorting created differential vulnerability

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## A series of unfortunate events that led to a crisis

### From Cost-Cutting to Contamination

#### State official took over the management of Flint

#### In a bid to save money, the water source was switched from the great lakes to the Flint river

#### The Flint river water was highly corrosive

#### To save more money, corrosion control treatment was not applied

- Water authorities put a treatment in water to prevent lead from leaching into water from old pipes

#### Residents began to complain about water quality

- Brown color
  - Bad smell
  - Health issues

---
## Doctor Mona Hanna observed a spike in lead levels in children

### As a pediatrician in Flint, she noticed a significant increase in blood lead levels among children

### She came to the conclusion that only one thing could have caused this spike in children from different neighborhoods, race, and income levels:

### The water

---
## Neighborhood Effects in the Flint Crisis

**Pre-Switch Geography Mattered:**
- Housing age distribution
- Property values and maintenance
- Infrastructure quality
- Distance from treatment centers

**Post-Switch Neighborhood Variation:**
- Lead levels tripled in some neighborhoods
- ~17% of homes exceeded 15 ppb federal limit
- \>40% exceeded 5 ppb "serious problem" threshold
- Blood-lead levels in children doubled citywide, tripled in certain areas

---
## The Economics of Place-Based Exposure

#### Why Location Determined Health Outcomes

**1. Housing stock characteristics**
- Older homes → lead service lines
- Lower property values → deferred maintenance
- Concentrated in specific neighborhoods

**2. Immobility constraints**
- Poverty limits residential mobility
- Homeownership as trap during crisis
- Information asymmetries about contamination

**3. Institutional neglect**
- Under-resourced neighborhoods = weaker advocacy

---
## Long-Run Neighborhood Effects

### Health Impacts and Future Outcomes

**Immediate crisis (2014-2015):**
- Around 9,000 children exposed for 18 months
- 12 deaths from Legionnaires' disease

**Long-term neighborhood consequences:**
- Lead exposure → cognitive impairment
- Reduced educational attainment
- Lower lifetime earnings
- Perpetuates neighborhood disadvantage

**The urban economics lesson:**

*Neighborhood effects matter*

---
## Urban Economics Takeaways

### Where You Live = What You're Exposed To

**The Flint case demonstrates:**

1. **Neighborhood quality is multidimensional**
   - Not just schools, crime, amenities
   - Also infrastructure, environmental hazards, institutional capacity

2. **Residential immobility amplifies shocks**
   - Poor residents can't easily relocate
   - Housing wealth trapped during crisis
   - Creates concentrated, persistent disadvantage

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## Discussion Questions

1. How does the Flint crisis illustrate the concept of "neighborhood effects" in urban economics?

2. How might lead exposure perpetuate neighborhood disadvantage across generations?

3. What are the implications for infrastructure investment in other declining cities?

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# Neighborhood Based Interventions <svg viewBox="0 0 576 512" style="height:1em;display:inline-block;position:fixed;top:10;right:10;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">  <path d="M280.37 148.26L96 300.11V464a16 16 0 0 0 16 16l112.06-.29a16 16 0 0 0 15.92-16V368a16 16 0 0 1 16-16h64a16 16 0 0 1 16 16v95.64a16 16 0 0 0 16 16.05L464 480a16 16 0 0 0 16-16V300L295.67 148.26a12.19 12.19 0 0 0-15.3 0zM571.6 251.47L488 182.56V44.05a12 12 0 0 0-12-12h-56a12 12 0 0 0-12 12v72.61L318.47 43a48 48 0 0 0-61 0L4.34 251.47a12 12 0 0 0-1.6 16.9l25.5 31A12 12 0 0 0 45.15 301l235.22-193.74a12.19 12.19 0 0 1 15.3 0L530.9 301a12 12 0 0 0 16.9-1.6l25.5-31a12 12 0 0 0-1.7-16.93z"></path></svg>

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# Rx Kids: Universal Prenatal and Infant Cash Transfers

## The Rx Kids Program: An Overview

### Program Design
- **Location**: Flint, Michigan (launched January 2024)
- **First universal, unconditional prenatal & infant cash transfer in US**
- **Eligibility**: All expectant mothers in Flint
- **Benefits**:
  - $1,500 one-time payment mid-pregnancy (~20 weeks)
  - $500/month for 12 months after birth
  - Total: $7,500 per family

### Key Features
- Near-universal take-up (~100% aggregate enrollment)
- >90% enroll prenatally
- No means testing or behavioral conditions
- Administered by GiveDirectly nonprofit

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## Prenatal Care Utilization Effects

#### Study Design
- **Sample**: 32,157 births across Flint and 21 matched Michigan cities (2021-2025)
- **Method**: Difference-in-differences using vital records data
- **Key Outcome**: Kessner Index (adequacy of prenatal care)

#### Main Findings

- **+9.1 percentage points** increase in adequate prenatal care (95% CI: 5.6-12.5)
- **-1.9 percentage points** reduction in no prenatal care (95% CI: -2.6 to -1.2)
- **+0.8 visits** increase in total prenatal visits (95% CI: 0.2-1.4)
- **+5.6 percentage points** increase in first trimester initiation (95% CI: 2.5-8.7)
  
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